"Of the top three crops vying for hectares in the U.S. Midwest and Plains, soybean plantings are most likely to rise this year at the expense of maize (corn) and, in some areas, wheat," USW said on March 19. "That is the emerging picture seen in public and private analyst predictions ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) March 31 Planting Intentions report."

Economic uncertainty, low prices and high input costs are prompting farmers to make the move to soybeans, according to USW. Corn and soybeans are interchangeable in the traditional "Corn Belt" where not much wheat is grown. However, corn is increasingly competitive with hard red winter (HRW) wheat in the Plains and soybean production is moving north into traditional hard red spring (HRS) growing regions.

"U.S. wheat planted area is on a long-term downward trend because of higher profit potential in alternative crops and strong participation in the U.S. Conservation Reserve Program," USW said. "With wheat prices currently running below input costs, that risk premium.... does not appear favorable to wheat for 2009 -2010."

The (USDA) recently forecasted U.S. winter wheat planted area at just under 23.5 million hectares (58 million acres). That would be an 8% decline compared to 2008-2009 including a steep drop from last year's record soft red winter (SRW) planted area.

"As reported in the March 5 edition of Wheat Letter a late spring is likely in the Northern Plains where a lot of snow still sits on soil that was already saturated before winter hit," USW said. "That is a big reason why many producers there have not yet purchased fertilizer or seed. If conditions keep them out of the field through April, they are more likely to plant soybeans or pulse crops where they would otherwise plant HRS. The fact that many producers still have HRS in storage would seem only to support a significant drop in spring-planted wheat."